Centre County All-Cause Mortality

2003 - 2019 and partial 2020 data from health.pa.gov

The Pennsylvania Department of Health statistics division has not updated its data sets for county-level death counts since October 26, 2020.

The Health Department has published data about deaths that occurred in Pennsylvania between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 2020, classified by county of death, but has not yet published information about deaths that occurred after September 30 and before December 31, 2020.

I checked in early January, then again a couple of weeks ago, then again this weekend.

In a world where government and media leaders weren’t manipulating information to terrify and coerce populations, a concerned citizen might expect death data to be collected and made available to the public quickly, so that people could contextualize incoming information and understand comparative risks and benefits from various measures imposed purportedly to promote “public health.” Especially the full-year data.

True, we live in a very different world.

In this world, government and media leaders are playing a very different game.

Governor Wolf, Health Secretary Rachel Levine and all the mainstream media from the Harrisburg, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh markets right down to our Centre County Gazette/StateCollege.com and Centre Daily Times have been playing up the “novel” and extraordinarily “deadly” pandemic story all year.

To keep the panic, fear and unquestioning compliance going, withholding year-end data makes a lot of sense.

Anyway, here’s a table summarizing some of the available data since 2003:

Disclaimer provided by PA Department of Health: "These data were provided by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. The Department specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations, or conclusions."

PA Department of Health text file notes: “This ZIP file contains CSV files of 2020 preliminary Pennsylvania occurrence death counts by selected variables. Pennsylvania occurrence deaths are deaths that happened in Pennsylvania. They can be to Pennsylvania residents or residents of other states or countries. The preliminary data is as of October 26, 2020, and is subject to change. The CSV files show counts through September 30, 2020…Data source: Pennsylvania Death Certificate Dataset.”

Where can those fourth quarter death certificates be? Long ago, they would have been filed at the county courthouses and available at the county level. Nowadays, a visit to the Centre County Register of Wills & Clerk of Orphans’ Court website gives readers a “Death Records” link that goes directly to the Department of Health’s Covid-19 landing page.

Pennsylvania Department of Health has been tracking “Covid-19” deaths by county, “extracting” the information from death certificates, so they must be receiving those death certificates.

As of Feb. 6, 2021, the Department of Health reported 201 “deaths attributed to Covid-19” in Centre County, presumably since “Covid-19” first became a classification that could be written on death certificates. The publication doesn’t list the timeframe.

Also interesting is “State Registrar Notice 2020-13 - Additional Guidance for Medical Professional: Reporting of Deaths Attributed to COVID-19,” last revised October 8, 2020.

The guidance states that deaths are to be reported to the state Bureau of Health Statistics and Registries within four days of occurence. September 30 was 130 days ago. Clearly, the Department of Health has the full 2020 death counts. It just hasn’t shared them publicly. Saving it for a big reveal party?

Using the 2003-2019 data set summarized in the table above, on average there have been 927 deaths per year in Centre County since 2003, of which an average 595 have been deaths of people age 75 and older, or 64%, on average.

I’ll check back weekly to see when (if ever) PA Dept. of Health posts October, November and December 2020 mortality data.

It will also be interesting to someday compare data on deaths from the “natural” cause of respiratory infections (as contrasted with “unnatural” deaths by accident, homicide or suicide), by year, county and age of decedent, to further understand what happened in 2020 and whether and/or to what degree it was statistically unusual.

For example, what was the rate of death per 100,000 population, on average each year from 2003 to 2019, from respiratory infections?

Also working on Mount Nittany Medical Center hospital capacity, utilization and staffing data sets. 2020 data was not yet posted last time I checked a week or so ago, but 2016 to 2019 annual data sets were available on a calendar year basis. Prior to 2016, reports were filed by fiscal year, but I’ll probably do a comparison table anyway, with a note alerting readers to that fact, since a January-to-December year and a July-to-June both cover 12-month periods and so data should be fairly comparable.